Exit Poll 2024 today: From 2014 to 2019, who best predicted election results? Mediainsights.in

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Notably, 57 constituencies in eight states and Union Territories (UTs) are voting today to decide their representatives. These states are Bihar, Chandigarh, Himachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odisha, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal.

Further, the state of Odisha is also having conducting Assembly Elections voting in its 42 constituencies today on June 1.

Lok Sabha Results Exit Polls 2024 Today

At the end of voting today, all attention will turn to the exit poll predictions released by various political research agencies. These exit polls are interview based surveys conducted by agencies after voters exercise their franschise. It aims to capture public sentiment and electoral trends before the results are declared. 

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Mostly predictions offer insights into the likely outcomes ahead of the official announcement of results. Lok Sabha 2024 Elections Results are scheduled to be announced by the Election Commission of India on June 4.

Exit Polls — Who Said What?

As anticipation towards the exit polls builds, we take a look at which research agencies have been close to accuracy in their past exit poll predictions.

• India Today-Axis My India in 2019 predicted that the NDA would win 339 to 365 seats and UPA 77 to 108.
• India Today–Cicero in 2014 predicted 272 seats for the NDA, 115 seats for the UPA, and 156 seats for all other parties. 
• News24-Today’s Chanakya in 2019 predicted that the NDA would bag an estimated 350 seats (±14) and UPA around 95 (±9).
• News 24-Today’s Chanakya in 2014 predicted 340 seats being won by the NDA, and by 70 seat wins for the UPA, while giving other parties 133 seats.

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• News18-IPSOS in 2019 projected 336 seats for the NDA and 82 seats for the UPA, with 124 seats for other parties.
• CNN-IBN-CSDS–Lokniti in 2014 forecasted 276 seats for the NDA, and 97 seats for the UPA, while giving 148 seats to other parties.
• Times Now-VMR in 2019 forecasted around 306 seats for the NDA and 132 seats for UPA (±3).
• Times Now-ORG in 2014 forcast 249 seats for the NDA, and 148 seats for the UPA, followed by 146 seats for all other parties combined. 

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• India TV-CNX in 2019 estimated 300 seats (±10) for the NDA and 120 seats (±5) for the UPA. 
• CVoter in 2019 predicted 287 seats for the NDA, 128 for the UPA, and the rest for other parties. 
• Sudarshan News in 2019 forecasted 305 seats for the NDA and 124 seats for the UPA.
• ABP News-Nielsen in 2014 predicted 274 seats for the NDA, 97 seats for the UPA and 165 seats for other parties. 
• NDTV-Hansa Research in 2014 said NDA would win 279 seats, UPA would bag 103 seats and the other would get 161 seats. 

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Actual Results vs Accuracy Levels: Comparison

• Actual Results in 2019 — NDA won 353 seats and the UPA secured 91 seats. 
• Accuracy Level in 2019 — Looking at the predicted vs actual numbers India Today-Axis My India and Today’s Chanakya were the most accurate, closest in range to the seats won. These were followed by the Times Now-VMR’s prediction.
• Actual Results in 2014 — The NDA won 336 seats, while the UPA got 66, and other parties secured 147. The BJP alone secured a majority of 282 seats.
• Accuracy Level in 2014 — Most exit polls correctly indicated a strong performance for the NDA.

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Published: 01 Jun 2024, 11:26 AM IST